Wild Wisdom · Executive decision record
RF Microneedling, Highland Park
Calder Aesthetics Group · one treatment line · sixteen complete weeks, then thirty measured days
Sealed · append-only · 1 of 12
Wild Wisdom recommendation
CHANGE
Wild Wisdom recommends moving the rollout from a three-location approval to a staged approval, and holding the current three-location commitment this cycle pending the eight-week reread. The operating model being replicated has an unresolved constraint where it already runs, so this evidence does not justify approving the rollout as presented. Wild Wisdom assessed Highland Park only; the three proposed markets were not assessed and nothing here says anything about them.
- CONTINUEOutcome Confidence at the recommendation step, on this line at Highland Park
- CHANGEthe rollout from a three-location approval to a staged approval, gated on this line reaching the pre-agreed booking rate and on its capacity ceiling being raised
- STOPthe current three-location rollout commitment this cycle — devices, fit-outs and hires — pending the eight-week reread
Leadership decision Not recorded in this sample. Leadership’s decision is recorded separately from Wild Wisdom’s recommendation.
Binding constraint
Conversion
Approved-plan volume currently exceeds deliverable treatment capacity: about 11.0 clinician-approved plans arrive each week against 10.7 the line can deliver. Conversion is the material unresolved gap, so conversion is the constraint that should govern the next decision. No week in the last eight reached the booked-minutes threshold, so deliverable capacity is not binding either. The loss sits between a clinician-approved plan and a booking.
Where the loss sits
Approved plan → Booking
66 of 154 clinician-approved plans did not reach a booking: 57% against a 80% comparison this group set from its own other device-led lines. 23 points, or 4.7 bookings a week. Booked → completed held at 88%.
Patient-stated friction, inside conversion
Outcome uncertainty
- Outcome uncertainty18
- Affordability11
- Downtime7
- Treatment ambiguity5
Deliverable capacity · not binding
84% peak week
Read against Wild Wisdom's standing capacity threshold over the last 8 weeks, reached in none of them. Utilisation 49% across the baseline. There is room to deliver more, and closing the conversion gap is what would fill it.
What closing the gap reaches
7.7 a week
At the 80% comparison rate, holding the observed 88% booked → completed rate. The original business case assumed 9 a week. Closing the conversion gap is the right next move and it does not, on its own, deliver the business case.
What we know
Conversion is the binding constraint on this line for this period. About 11.0 clinician-approved plans arrive each week against 10.7 the line can deliver, and no week in the last eight reached the booked-minutes threshold, so neither demand nor deliverable capacity is what holds it back now. The loss is located between a clinician-approved plan and a booking, and outcome uncertainty is the friction most often still in the way for the patients who did not book.
What this does not tell us
Whether the intervention caused the difference between the two groups. Whether the three proposed locations would perform differently, which was not assessed. Anything about contribution or payback: the direct cost per completed treatment was not supplied, so no margin, ROI or payback figure appears anywhere in this record.
What would change our mind
If clinician-approved plans fell below what the line can deliver, demand would become the binding constraint and this conversion reading would be set aside. If booked minutes were sustained at Wild Wisdom's standing booked-minutes threshold, deliverable capacity would become binding and the rollout question would change shape. We re-read every period, and say so when it moves.
What we tested, because the read warranted it
Does Outcome Confidence at the recommendation step change the share of clinician-approved plans that reach a booking?
- Control · n = 23
- 57%
- reached a booking · 13 of 23
- Outcome Confidence · n = 24
- 71%
- reached a booking · 17 of 24
Assignment mechanism: RANDOMISED, from a recorded seed sealed before any plan was assigned. Exposure delivered to 21 of 24, 88%, against a floor agreed at 80% beforehand. Observational: the 14.3-point difference is described, not tested. Bookings made inside the window need thirty-five days to reach a completed treatment, so their completion is outside this measurement and no revenue is claimed.
Next step
Continue Outcome Confidence at the recommendation step on this line, and re-read the constraint at eight complete weeks.
A test was warranted here only because conversion is the binding constraint and the friction patients named has a response the clinician has already approved. Had capacity or demand been binding, the honest output would have been a decision and no test.
Retest trigger
Re-read at eight complete weeks. Sooner if clinician-approved plans fall below what the line can deliver, which would make demand binding and set this reading aside.
What the decision commits
$446,700
The uncommitted three-location rollout commitment, first twelve months: 3 locations at $148,900 each. Every line is avoidable cash at the date of this record: nothing is leased, ordered, offered or contracted. Sunk equipment cost, theoretical utilisation and the gross value of unbooked plans are not in it, because none of them is money a decision can still avoid.