Wild Wisdom / decision record · Synthetic · v1.1.1
Three more locations were queued behind this one. Should they be?
Calder Aesthetics Group · RF Microneedling · Highland Park
The three candidates, and the verdict on each
Demand — NOT THE NEXT CONSTRAINT
176 clinician-approved plans over 16 complete weeks — about 11.0 a week, against 10.7 the line can deliver.
Conversion — BINDING
88 of 154 clinician-approved plans old enough to have booked reached a booking — 57% — against 80% across this group's own other device-led lines.
Deliverable Capacity — NOT BINDING
Booked minutes reached Wild Wisdom's standing capacity threshold in 0 of the last 8 weeks; the highest single week was 84%. Utilisation 49% across the baseline.
Why the loss happens, from the cohort that lost
Of the 41 Decision Rooms opened among the 66 approved plans that did not book, 18 named outcome uncertainty as still in the way.
The 66 clinician-approved plans that did not reach a booking. 41 of 66 opened a Decision Room; all 41 answered. The Wild Wisdom Decision Room supplies patient-stated evidence when the unresolved loss is at the patient-decision stage. This line loses people between a clinician-approved plan and a booking, which is exactly that stage, so Decision Room responses are the evidence used here.
Fact: What patients selected from a fixed set, at readiness. Hypothesis: That showing relevant, clinician-approved journeys addresses it. That is what the thirty days test.
What was tested, because the read warranted it
Outcome Confidence at the recommendation step
RANDOMISED, on approved → booked. Criteria agreed for this recorded test before the measurement period began: exposure at or above 80%, and a booking gap of at least 10 points. Exposure delivered to 21 of 24, 88%. 17 of 24 against 13 of 23 — 14.3 points, 3 additional bookings.
Described, not tested. No causal claim is made and no revenue is claimed. Bookings made inside the window need thirty-five days to reach a completed treatment, so their completion is outside this measurement and no revenue is claimed.
What we know
Conversion is the binding constraint on this line for this period. About 11.0 clinician-approved plans arrive each week against 10.7 the line can deliver, and no week in the last eight reached the booked-minutes threshold, so neither demand nor deliverable capacity is what holds it back now. The loss is located between a clinician-approved plan and a booking, and outcome uncertainty is the friction most often still in the way for the patients who did not book.
What this does not tell us
Whether the intervention caused the difference between the two groups. Whether the three proposed locations would perform differently, which was not assessed. Anything about contribution or payback: the direct cost per completed treatment was not supplied, so no margin, ROI or payback figure appears anywhere in this record.
What would change our mind
If clinician-approved plans fell below what the line can deliver, demand would become the binding constraint and this conversion reading would be set aside. If booked minutes were sustained at Wild Wisdom's standing booked-minutes threshold, deliverable capacity would become binding and the rollout question would change shape. We re-read every period, and say so when it moves.
Has the model earned replication?
Not yet. Wild Wisdom assessed Highland Park only. The existing operating model has not yet earned replication; the future markets themselves have not been assessed. What the evidence shows is that the operating model being replicated has an unresolved constraint where it already runs, so this evidence does not justify approving the rollout as presented. Fix it where it already runs, re-read at eight weeks, and the same evidence that stopped the rollout this cycle is what would earn it the next.
The full walkthrough, chapter by chapter ↗Change the assumption ↗





